North Carolina's vital coastal breeding grounds vulnerable to rising seas

This post now on Google News and on wwwbasilandspice.com

 Map of coastal NC with barrier islands,  

courtesy of www.cop.noaa.gov

I've written posts about Florida and Louisana losing ground to rising seas. Both states are projected to lose at least 10% of their land mass this century.

North Carolina hasn't gotten has much press as Louisiana and Florida, but NC is among the states most vulnerable to rising seas, reports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. Coastal inundation in North Carolina would affect industries and wildlife far beyond the state's borders.

The Outer Banks protect the mainland
North Carolina's mainland coast is at present protected by a continuous arc of barrier islands known as the Outer Banks. The Outer Banks take the full brunt of the hurricanes and tropical storms that often strike the Atlantic coast of the southern U.S. Over the past few decades, the Outer Banks have become increasingly developed with expensive vacation real estate as well as year-round communities.

One undeveloped area on the Outer Banks is the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, which remains a breeding ground for sea turtles and for thousands of shore birds, including endangered species such as the Piping Plover.

The people and the wildlife of the Outer Banks are extremely vulnerable to rising seas.

NC seas could rise 4.6 feet, says panel on January 16
A panel of scientists and engineers reported on January 15, 2010, that the sea level on the NC coast may rise as much as 4.6 feet this century. Even a rise of 3 feet, they report, would wipe out the Outer Banks. If or when that happens, the repercussions will be far flung.


Rising seas likely to wipe out vital breeding grounds
Between the Outer Banks and North Carolina's mainland are brackish wetlands and the calm waters of the Pamlico Sound, an area of fewer predators than the open ocean. The Pamlico Sound serves as a nursery for much of the young sea life of the entire East Coast. But if the Banks are submerged, the Sound and 2300 square miles of low-lying marshland will be flooded with saltier sea water, which will destroy the brackish ecosystem, as well as the fishes that are adapted to the less salty water of the Pamlico Sound as youngsters.

This is not just a nightmare for naturalists and ecologists. The commercial fishing industry would also be devastated by the loss of this important breeding ground.

Although scientists cannot predict with certainty how much sea levels will rise this century, estimates by climate scientists are leaning toward higher numbers. Ice sheets in Greenland are are shifting faster than expected, and indications of unstable ice are appearing in Antarctica, reports Gordon Hamilton of the University of Maine. Writes Bruce Henderson of the Charlotte Observer, "Ice sheets in Greenland alone could raise global seas some 20 feet."  This is a generally accepted approximate figure. The question is, how long will it take?  And will we be able to stop or slow the process?

What can you do?
We can work to slow the process by reducing our own greenhouse gas emissions. As residents of the United States, we have the highest per capita generation of GG in the world. We can reduce our output by
eating fewer animal products (see "Livestock and Climate Change" by Worldwatch Institute), by driving less, carpooling, driving fuel-efficient cars, choosing passive-solar homes, and in general burning fewer fossil fuels. Take the Environmental Footprint quiz and learn more how to reduce your own carbon footprint. We all have to participate, if we are to reduce global climate change during the short window of opportunity we have over the next few years.

For more practical suggestions about how to reduce your carbon footprint, see our book Going Green: A Wise Consumer's Guide to a Shrinking Planet. The book offers strategies regarding diet, housing, transportation, clothing, and other consumer choices that we all make every day.

Sources:
Bruce Henderson. "Sea rising along N.C., but how quickly? Accelerating upward creep could reshape the coast and endanger Outer Banks, scientists say." The Charlotte Observer. January 16, 2010.

Sally Kneidel, PhD, and Sadie Kneidel. 2008. Going Green: A Wise Consumer's Guide to a Shrinking Planet. Fulcrum Books.

Some of my recent posts about climate change:

Tree deaths have doubled due to climate change

Livestock account for 51% of annual global climate change.

Famous ice caps of Kilamanjaro gone by 2022

Copenhagen data: 10% of Florida underwater by the end of the century 

One-tenth of Louisiana to be submerged by 2010 

Irvine CA schools go solar; most comprehensive solar school plan in the U.S.

Less meat.....smaller footprint

Most earth-friendly mass transit

Green tip #1: Annex the outdoors and save energy and materials

How to buy a used, fuel-efficient, and green car


Keywords: rising sea levels climate change Outer Banks North Carolina fisheries devastated endangered birds

Famous ice caps of Kilimanjaro gone by 2022

All photos and text by Sally Kneidel, PhD, at sallykneidel.com

Ever read "Snows of Kilimanjaro" by Ernest Hemingway?  Some of those famous Kilimanjaro glaciers have been around  for at least 11,700 years, and survived a drought 4200 years ago that lasted 300 years. But pretty soon, those legendary snows and ice fields will be gone - another casualty of global climate change.

Or so says glaciologist Dr. Lonnie Thompson and his colleagues from Ohio State University. Thompson and his team used data from aerial surveys and field studies to assess changes in the glaciers of Tanzania's Mount Kilimanjaro. The field studies included glacial drilling to measure changes in depth. Writes Thompson, "Of the ice cover present in 1912, 85% has disappeared and 26% of that present in 2000 is now gone."  The rate of melting is accelerating, reports Thompson in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 

The ice masses of Kilimanjaro are both receding up the peak, and they're thinning dramatically.  Kilimanjaro's Southern Ice Field, 21 meters thick in 2000, lost 5.1 meters between 2000 and 2007.

As the glaciers retreat and break into smaller pieces, the dark rocks become exposed and absorb more sunlight than the white ice, thus heating up faster than the ice and accelerating the melting of the surrounding ice. At the documented rates of melting, Kilimanjaro's ice fields could disappear by the year 2022, according to Thompson and his colleagues in their online article in the November 2 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Alan Kneidel by a stream of springtime glacial melt.
Photo by Sally Kneidel, PhD

The climatological phenomena occurring on Kilimanjaro are thought to be applicable to other tropical peaks, such as those in the Andes. Says Ted Pfeffer, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado in Boulder, these studies will help predict when other tropical glaciers will melt and disappear.  Many of these tropical glaciers provide water for people downhill, by way of seasonal glacial melt that is replenished by winter snowfall.

                     Above, a seasonal pool of  glacial melt in the Cordillera Blanca of the Peruvian Andes.  The melted snow has, for thousands of years, been replenished during normal winters. Photo by Sally Kneidel, PhD

Above, a Quechuan family in the Andes. They have depended on seasonal glacial melt for their herding and farming needs for generations, with ancient stone aqueducts to funnel the melt to their farms. Photo by Sally Kneidel, PhD

Above, another Quechuan family of farmers and herders in the valley below Mt. Huascaran, the highest tropical peak in the world. Photo by Sally Kneidel, PhD

What will happen when glacial melt is no longer available to communities living on and below the world's peaks? Lives will change, people will move.....who knows beyond that.

Thompson's recent publication was likely one of the studies that contributed to the Copenhagen Diagnosis. One of the conclusions of the Copenhagen Diagnosis, in its Executive Summary, is as follows:
"Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990."

So...stay tuned. Let's see what the conclusions are from the climate summit in Copenhagen. Will we all be advised to give up animal products? That would be the easiest and fastest thing to do, since Worldwatch Institute concluded that 51% of annual worldwide greenhouse-gas emissions are from livestock. I'm waiting for President Obama to tell us what we're going to do as a nation. If he doesn't include the fact that we now eat more animal products per capita than any other country, I'm going to suspect that he's not reading all the news.

This post now a Google News Link and posted on www.basilandspice.com.

Sources:
L.G. Thompson et al. "Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 11/2/2009.

Sid Perkins. "Mount Kilimanjaro could soon be bald: world renowned ice caps may disappear by the 2020s." Science News. 12/5/2009.

Copenhagen Diagnosis, Executive Summary. 2009

Sally Kneidel, PhD, "Livestock responsible for 51% of annual worldwide greenhouse-gas emissions". 

Robert Goodland and Jeff Anhang. "Livestock and Climate Change: What if the key factors in climate change are cows, pigs, and chickens?" Worldwatch 22(6):10-19. Nov/Dec 2009.

Key words:: melting ice caps Kilimanjaro rising sea levels climate change
                                                

One-tenth of Louisiana to be submerged by 2100

The Louisiana coast in the year 2100, according to scientists' projections of rising seas and reduced sedimentation. Note that New Orleans is far off the coast.
Photo courtesy of Science News, 7/18/09.

The residents of New Orleans have had it rough the last few years, following the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina. Much of the city has been restored and rebuilt, while other damaged areas still remain as they were after the storm.  Unfortunately, due to the particular location of New Orleans, the situation may get worse instead of better in the coming decades. A recent study published in the journal Nature Geoscience predicts that ten percent of Louisiana will be submerged by the year 2100.

Scientist Harry Roberts of Louisiana State University and his colleague Michael D. Blum used computer modeling, based on scientific measurements, to estimate the effect of various factors on the gradual submersion of Louisiana.  One factor is the sinking of land as sediments from the Mississippi River are compacted under their own weight. This compaction is a normal phenomenon. Historically, new sediments have been deposited at a rate that has replaced the sinking sediments, keeping delta land levels constant. But in the fairly recent past, the amount of sediment deposited by the river has been cut in half by dams upriver. Now, with the reduced flow of new sediments, the land is sinking at a net rate of about 8 millimeters per year. Near Baton Rouge, 150 km upstream, sediments are also sinking and not being replaced. The submersion process is just a bit slower upstream.

The lack of new sediment is not the only problem causing southern Louisiana to sink. The other issue is rising sea levels due to climate change. Scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have reported that sea levels are currently rising at a rate of 3 millimeters per year, and that rate will accelerate as the climate continues to warm. Seas are expected to rise one meter between now and 2100, putting one in ten people across the globe at risk from coastal flooding.

By the year 2100, the combination of these two influences will submerge about 13,500 square kilometers in Louisiana, or 10% of the state's total area.

Even if more sediment-laden water could somehow be diverted to the sinking areas, scientists estimate that 12,600 square kilometers would still be submerged by 2100.

If the computer modeling is correct, New Orleans will be well away from Louisiana's mainland in just 90 years, and largely underwater.

New Orleans and southern Louisiana are not the only delta areas in trouble. Many of the world's largest and most densely populated and heavily farmed deltas are on their way to becoming open ocean.  The causes are the same as those in Louisiana - reduction in the flow of sediment that restores and maintains deltas, and rising sea levels. Scientists James Syvitski and colleagues writing for Nature Geoscience estimate that the amount of delta surface area vulnerable to flooding and inundation will increase at least 50% this century, and more if the capture of sediments upstream continues.

What can you do?  The main thing we as consumers can do is to cut our own greenhouse gas emissions, in order to reduce climate change and rising sea levels. See my blog post of November 2 for at least one powerful solution from the Worldwatch Institute.  For many more consumer strategies to address climate change, see our 2008 book, Going Green: A Wise Consumer's Guide to a Shrinking Planet.

Sources and additional reading:

James Syvitski et al. "Sinking deltas due to human activities." Sept 9, 2009,  Nature Geoscience 2, 681-686.

Sid Perkins. "Louisiana sinks as sea level rises: State's coast threatened by global warming, settling land." July 18, 2009, Science News.

Danny Bradbury. "Louisiana coast will be underwater by 2010."  June 30, 2009. Business Green.

Michael Blum and Harry Roberts. "Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise." June 28, 2009. Nature Geosceince 2, 488-491.

Associated Press. "New Orleans is sinking - and fast. Scientists say subsidence explains Katrina damage, complicates recovery." May 31, 2006.   www.msnbc.msn.com

Key words:: climate change New Orleans deltas rising sea levels Louisiana reduced sedimentation flooding of coastal areas climate refugees Katrina